機械学習で競馬予想 其の008 ～結果分析と更に予想～

タイトルを「機械学習　～其のXXX～」から実態に合わせて「機械学習で競馬予想　～其のXXX～」に変えました。

先日のエントリで分析したトップライジングですが、結果は、10着でタイムは1:15.7(75.7秒)という結果に終わり惨敗でした。
先日の分析では、タイムも74秒代で1着を十分狙えるだろうと考えていただけに残念。

10着馬（トップライジング）の開催日別タイム

ここで今回、1着だった馬のデータを同様に解析したものを見てみます。

1着馬（シュヤク）の開催日別タイム

ベストのタイムがシュヤクとトップライジングとで、それぞれ73秒と74.3秒とで大きく違いますが、比べてみても良くわからないため、取りあえず、馬体重、重量負担、馬番を追加して回帰分析してみました。　その結果は以下のとおりです。
これは、20150918の大井競馬 8レースから12レースの各馬の暫定予想タイムになっています。暫定というのは、このデータを取ったタイミングで、馬体重が公表されておらず、暫定で490kgを設定しているためです。

8R 1200m
87.5201280444 = 1200 * (-0.00608170020752) + 490 * (-0.0855814790549) + 54.0 * (2.52359450254) + 1 * (0.478989892862)
time = 129.455052781 + (-0.0855814790549) * weight

74.8910383433 = 1200 * (0.0674028008163) + 490 * (0.043545588983) + 56.0 * (-0.495432712341) + 2 * (0.207285326593)
time = 53.5536997417 + (0.043545588983) * weight

74.9022649867 = 1200 * (0.0797921854474) + 490 * (0.0707924791712) + 55.0 * (-1.00324819042) + 3 * (-0.119340623601)
time = 40.2139501928 + (0.0707924791712) * weight

72.6155958233 = 1200 * (0.0723753265839) + 490 * (0.0553274071246) + 56.0 * (-0.739853836204) + 4 * (0.0216473147644)
time = 45.5051663323 + (0.0553274071246) * weight

77.7753049948 = 1200 * (0.0717252584652) + 490 * (-0.0078180068587) + 56.0 * (-0.0888651292774) + 5 * (0.102453087363)
time = 81.6061283556 + (-0.0078180068587) * weight

74.6251760234 = 1200 * (0.0799253840792) + 490 * (-0.0248266240931) + 56.0 * (-0.163810847023) + 6 * (0.00886139453298)
time = 86.790221829 + (-0.0248266240931) * weight

78.0259506402 = 1200 * (0.0792853449902) + 490 * (-0.299383884159) + 54.0 * (2.39423611011) + 7 * (0.0418414205825)
time = 224.724053878 + (-0.299383884159) * weight

79.0381926366 = 1200 * (0.0646107009093) + 490 * (0.0514334046089) + 54.0 * (-0.424217992352) + 8 * (-0.0986556407497)
time = 53.8358243782 + (0.0514334046089) * weight

73.080599263 = 1200 * (0.0756171545588) + 490 * (-0.0633117461005) + 56.0 * (0.229545656756) + 9 * (0.0564680670304)
time = 104.103354852 + (-0.0633117461005) * weight

76.8909480018 = 1200 * (0.0736970011344) + 490 * (-0.00802184168096) + 56.0 * (-0.141276728437) + 10 * (0.0296745856668)
time = 80.8216504255 + (-0.00802184168096) * weight

77.1498916177 = 1200 * (0.075142853651) + 490 * (0.0169685308434) + 54.0 * (-0.398624803746) + 11 * (0.0172387750474)
time = 68.8353115044 + (0.0169685308434) * weight

75.4531374072 = 1200 * (0.0749265448252) + 490 * (0.00612468085151) + 56.0 * (-0.304055655761) + 12 * (-0.036057773136)
time = 72.45204379 + (0.00612468085151) * weight

81.6638557379 = 1200 * (0.0749308989762) + 490 * (0.0859239691663) + 54.0 * (-0.919754803964) + 13 * (-0.0530160393122)
time = 39.5611108464 + (0.0859239691663) * weight


9R 1600m
103.86577985 = 1600 * (0.0726438344989) + 490 * (-0.0218674539464) + 56.0 * (-0.0280404848658) + 1 * (-0.0790357623769)
time = 114.580832283 + (-0.0218674539464) * weight

105.001932535 = 1600 * (0.0696821412552) + 490 * (0.0669686378066) + 54.0 * (-0.729869812855) + 2 * (0.0544219478591)
time = 72.1873000098 + (0.0669686378066) * weight

105.142058319 = 1600 * (0.0702696797711) + 490 * (0.00581458692839) + 56.0 * (-0.178397239763) + 3 * (-0.0494438277566)
time = 102.292910724 + (0.00581458692839) * weight

104.385990573 = 1600 * (0.0693722815285) + 490 * (0.0511174505049) + 56.0 * (-0.56485975734) + 4 * (-0.00626605231626)
time = 79.3384398253 + (0.0511174505049) * weight

102.195931185 = 1600 * (0.0717427792242) + 490 * (0.0792932180769) + 56.0 * (-0.901536873127) + 5 * (-0.192025507265)
time = 63.3422543273 + (0.0792932180769) * weight

105.967347615 = 1600 * (0.0712976748168) + 490 * (-0.0414219431634) + 56.0 * (0.221069824247) + 6 * (-0.0320150165328)
time = 126.264099765 + (-0.0414219431634) * weight

102.466741059 = 1600 * (0.0684971551098) + 490 * (-0.0492030845349) + 56.0 * (0.31262544514) + 7 * (-0.0751743746671)
time = 126.576252481 + (-0.0492030845349) * weight

102.625803731 = 1600 * (0.0724653892123) + 490 * (-0.058596869242) + 54.0 * (0.293476844288) + 8 * (-0.0567628339865)
time = 131.338269659 + (-0.058596869242) * weight

102.008954504 = 1600 * (0.0724128103182) + 490 * (-0.0612527219682) + 54.0 * (0.28939936301) + 9 * (0.0594140174659)
time = 132.022788269 + (-0.0612527219682) * weight

105.083153821 = 1600 * (0.0749321727016) + 490 * (-0.0540842740235) + 54.0 * (0.221160074921) + 10 * (-0.0249672276314)
time = 131.584448092 + (-0.0540842740235) * weight

103.608431996 = 1600 * (0.0737408098649) + 490 * (-0.0697242623347) + 56.0 * (0.348650436415) + 11 * (0.0239636651977)
time = 137.77332054 + (-0.0697242623347) * weight

101.965789104 = 1600 * (0.0702263226535) + 490 * (-0.0499492296608) + 53.0 * (0.264687290088) + 12 * (0.00419741810974)
time = 126.440911638 + (-0.0499492296608) * weight

102.819103916 = 1600 * (0.0721936874656) + 490 * (-0.0427528869553) + 56.0 * (0.15586169725) + 13 * (-0.0361643435671)
time = 123.768018525 + (-0.0427528869553) * weight

113.735757207 = 1600 * (0.00602666002174) + 490 * (-0.811583161982) + 56.0 * (8.96756608515) + 14 * (-0.0296321589512)
time = 511.411506578 + (-0.811583161982) * weight


10R 1200m
75.6534978444 = 1200 * (0.0758249746465) + 490 * (0.0865955387581) + 56.0 * (-1.03137918365) + 1 * (-0.0110514387177)
time = 33.2216838529 + (0.0865955387581) * weight

78.5825230819 = 1200 * (0.0785819595262) + 490 * (0.0960475103623) + 56.0 * (-1.12425321453) + 2 * (0.0895357932475)
time = 31.5192430044 + (0.0960475103623) * weight

79.4834806527 = 1200 * (0.0660203710677) + 490 * (0.0548407883321) + 54.0 * (-0.487107813385) + 3 * (-0.103042996191)
time = 52.6114943699 + (0.0548407883321) * weight

77.2240682948 = 1200 * (0.0764763083184) + 490 * (-0.0691273210283) + 56.0 * (0.35731868139) + 4 * (-0.171240135337)
time = 111.096455599 + (-0.0691273210283) * weight

81.3518240972 = 1200 * (0.0688353655261) + 490 * (0.13678367073) + 56.0 * (-1.20407747812) + 5 * (-0.169254883413)
time = 14.3278254397 + (0.13678367073) * weight

78.7843083065 = 1200 * (0.0892981962737) + 490 * (-0.200840504708) + 54.0 * (1.25273144361) + 6 * (0.398470354988)
time = 177.196155614 + (-0.200840504708) * weight

80.6921887286 = 1200 * (0.0754731721705) + 490 * (0.0840634396165) + 54.0 * (-0.946776093605) + 7 * (0.00845796665483)
time = 39.5011033165 + (0.0840634396165) * weight

75.78258311 = 1200 * (0.0677149483788) + 490 * (0.082076442838) + 54.0 * (-0.833401815472) + 8 * (-0.0861392374537)
time = 35.5651261194 + (0.082076442838) * weight

74.7007243051 = 1200 * (0.0815805663472) + 490 * (-0.0281168195522) + 54.0 * (-0.15658824648) + 9 * (-0.106994269)
time = 88.4779658857 + (-0.0281168195522) * weight

74.0807696876 = 1200 * (0.0788362316355) + 490 * (-0.0239889151471) + 56.0 * (-0.159927788029) + 10 * (0.018781627663)
time = 85.8353381097 + (-0.0239889151471) * weight

70.9933516161 = 1200 * (0.0713940008831) + 490 * (0.144449906112) + 56.0 * (-1.50354918028) + 11 * (-0.114649940253)
time = 0.212897621379 + (0.144449906112) * weight

84.1289572641 = 1200 * (0.0558304719911) + 490 * (0.112778196973) + 56.0 * (-0.701292784865) + 12 * (0.0952891925219)
time = 28.8676407471 + (0.112778196973) * weight

75.2985017929 = 1200 * (0.0674810778737) + 490 * (-0.0115957903982) + 54.0 * (0.00468991293807) + 13 * (-0.0192392045457)
time = 80.980439088 + (-0.0115957903982) * weight


11R 1600m
103.556626742 = 1600 * (0.0723732373755) + 490 * (-0.0487422332652) + 57.0 * (0.206593565492) + 1 * (-0.132691992063)
time = 127.440321042 + (-0.0487422332652) * weight

102.236125099 = 1600 * (0.069514078991) + 490 * (-0.00871246780474) + 55.0 * (-0.0871276186781) + 2 * (0.0373634822802)
time = 106.505234323 + (-0.00871246780474) * weight

103.205254569 = 1600 * (0.0685235750555) + 490 * (0.0140464709482) + 57.0 * (-0.230866930339) + 3 * (-0.0519404182504)
time = 96.3224838048 + (0.0140464709482) * weight

102.671368475 = 1600 * (0.0695700260522) + 490 * (0.000284212518471) + 57.0 * (-0.153490474486) + 4 * (-0.00774507425394)
time = 102.532104341 + (0.000284212518471) * weight

100.29625964 = 1600 * (0.0680543356651) + 490 * (0.0600271085077) + 57.0 * (-0.665653995703) + 5 * (-0.0123365675779)
time = 70.8829764712 + (0.0600271085077) * weight

102.412176761 = 1600 * (0.0728753516771) + 490 * (-0.0159254966855) + 55.0 * (-0.118679701286) + 6 * (0.0237485040393)
time = 110.215670137 + (-0.0159254966855) * weight

102.746262197 = 1600 * (0.0696908750778) + 490 * (-0.127176872227) + 55.0 * (0.975661097602) + 7 * (-0.014832986347)
time = 165.062929588 + (-0.127176872227) * weight

102.159513383 = 1600 * (0.0740656025914) + 490 * (0.00893022163509) + 57.0 * (-0.346461094749) + 8 * (-0.121622120504)
time = 97.7837047815 + (0.00893022163509) * weight

102.627822361 = 1600 * (0.0693956184081) + 490 * (0.00835914768876) + 57.0 * (-0.234643871134) + 9 * (0.0970612439065)
time = 98.5318399934 + (0.00835914768876) * weight


12R 1800m
114.311749262 = 1800 * (0.0661093024384) + 490 * (-0.0689679076109) + 53.0 * (0.544673581437) + 1 * (0.241579785641)
time = 148.106023991 + (-0.0689679076109) * weight

118.134687196 = 1800 * (0.0708635076132) + 490 * (0.0497348668533) + 56.0 * (-0.596738023274) + 2 * (-0.186190981037)
time = 93.7646024383 + (0.0497348668533) * weight

115.722414038 = 1800 * (0.0627981255485) + 490 * (-0.0737046602742) + 56.0 * (0.693255689789) + 3 * (-0.00708234778356)
time = 151.837697572 + (-0.0737046602742) * weight

110.218202951 = 1800 * (0.0558387358784) + 490 * (0.0842304586098) + 56.0 * (-0.554070302816) + 4 * (-0.134127347797)
time = 68.9452782323 + (0.0842304586098) * weight

115.72432809 = 1800 * (0.0652500580749) + 490 * (0.003004280024) + 56.0 * (-0.0401534891509) + 5 * (-0.189855652892)
time = 114.252230878 + (0.003004280024) * weight

119.882310196 = 1800 * (0.0737906753503) + 490 * (-0.00889739468575) + 56.0 * (-0.162168956544) + 6 * (0.083379921261)
time = 124.242033592 + (-0.00889739468575) * weight

118.465310363 = 1800 * (0.0791376753605) + 490 * (0.0852668174952) + 54.0 * (-1.22079806111) + 7 * (0.0228356344157)
time = 76.6845697899 + (0.0852668174952) * weight

113.272925169 = 1800 * (0.0670640117924) + 490 * (0.256597179991) + 56.0 * (-2.38236267711) + 8 * (0.0296744581617)
time = -12.4596930264 + (0.256597179991) * weight

117.500044468 = 1800 * (0.0682065454219) + 490 * (-0.0431373427755) + 56.0 * (0.33024329199) + 9 * (-0.292007075832)
time = 138.637342428 + (-0.0431373427755) * weight

117.111881561 = 1800 * (0.0671580701417) + 490 * (1.66744887632e-06) + 54.0 * (-0.0497372595788) + 10 * (-0.108764972664)
time = 117.111064511 + (1.66744887632e-06) * weight

114.999647899 = 1800 * (0.0663582628951) + 490 * (0.0651121760702) + 56.0 * (-0.637567237164) + 11 * (-0.0587660277937)
time = 83.0946816244 + (0.0651121760702) * weight

116.010184727 = 1800 * (0.0688308475348) + 490 * (-0.0300615616672) + 54.0 * (0.129175344862) + 12 * (-0.0108870200623)
time = 130.740349944 + (-0.0300615616672) * weight

116.128284199 = 1800 * (0.067983100568) + 490 * (-0.0592334672935) + 55.0 * (0.425862954324) + 13 * (-0.0491815643766)
time = 145.152683173 + (-0.0592334672935) * weight

実装の紹介は後日。